Bent to the Illusion

The Müller-Lyer illusion, a famous optical illusion (involves) two sets of arrows. The arrows are exactly the same length. But in one case, the ends of the arrows outward, seem to signify expansion and boundless potential. In the other case, they point inward, making them seem self-contained and limited. The first case is analogous to how investors see the stock market when returns have been increasing; the second case is how they see it after a crash.

“There’s no way that you can control yourself not to have that illusion,” (Nobel prize winner) Daniel Kahneman told me. “You look at them, and one of the arrows is going to look longer than the other. But you can train yourself to recognize that this is a pattern that causes an illusion, and in that situation, I can’t trust my impressions; I’ve got to use a ruler.”

Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise

People prefer the Illusion

People do not want truth; they prefer to believe what makes them happy. People prefer to live in illusions, even though the illusion masks the truth that their condition is one of despair, and they regard anyone who wishes to give them the truth about the condition as their enemy.  -C. Stephen Evans

How would you answer this question?

Whenever I interview someone for a job, I like to ask this question: “What important truth do very few people agree with you on?” This question sounds easy because it’s straightforward. Actually, it’s very hard to answer. It’s intellectually difficult because the knowledge that everyone is taught in school is by definition agreed upon. And it’s psychologically difficult because anyone trying to answer must say something she knows to be unpopular. Brilliant thinking is rare, but courage is in even shorter supply than genius.

Most commonly, I hear answers like the following:

“Our educational system is broken and urgently needs to be fixed.”

“America is exceptional.”

“There is no God.”

Those are bad answers. The first and the second statements might be true, but many people already agree with them. The third statement simply takes one side in a familiar debate. A good answer takes the following form: “Most people believe in x, but the truth is the opposite of x.”

 Peter Thiel

Zero to One Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future

Building on Sand

When questioned about their religious creed, people who circle the wagons are usually afraid that what they profess might not be true. Seldom (if ever?) will you run across a 100% false belief system. There are scattered nuggets of truth in each one.

There are people in every religious, political, and philosophical system who simply accept the group’s views at face value. They grew up in it, gave in to social pressure, and joined. Perhaps they are unwilling to come to terms with the fact they have been walking on the wrong road. Admitting that you’ve invested yourself in something that’s been a waste of your time is not easy. Going back and starting over again is not very appealing.

Ultimately, it’s a choice about maintaining a comfort level or pursuing truth. If you surround yourself only with things and people who reinforce your belief system, you don't have to worry about your worldview being knocked out from under you (although circumstances have a way of eventually doing it). The choice ultimately becomes denying reality or reassessing cherished ideas on which we’ve built our lives. 

Stephen Goforth